The SIFMA Economist Roundtable brings together chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions. Its semiannual survey, published prior to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, compiles the median economic forecast of Roundtable members.

This Flash Poll provides an updated pulse on select questions following our last semiannual survey, including (for 2024):

• Real GDP growth rate: +1.6% Y/Y; +0.9 pps vs. last survey
• U.S. unemployment rate: 4.1% estimate; -0.3 pps vs. last survey
• Inflation (Y/Y estimate; vs. last survey)
  • CPI/Core CPI: +2.8%/ +3.1%; +0.6 pps/+0.5 pps
  • PCE/Core PCE: +2.3%/+2.5%; no change/+0.1 pps
• Federal Funds (Fed Funds) rate
  • Fed’s next move: 76.9% responded cut in 2Q24
  • Number of cuts in 2024: 61.5% responded 3-4
  • Will Fed hike rates in 2024: 100% responded no
  • Expected Fed funds rate at end-2024: 58.3% responded 4.25%-4.50%

 

This survey was conducted between March 25 and April 3.

About the SIFMA Economist Roundtable

The SIFMA Economist Roundtable brings together chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions. SIFMA Research undergoes a semiannual U.S. Economic Survey with this group, analyzing the median economic forecasts of Roundtable members, published prior to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in June and December. In those reports, we analyze the Roundtable’s expectations for: GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc. We also review expectations for policy moves at the upcoming FOMC meeting and discuss key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.

SIFMA Economist Roundtable Chair

• Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D, Stifel Financial Corp.

SIFMA Economist Roundtable

• Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management
• Michael Gapen, Bank of America
• Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capital
• Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass
• Douglas Porter, BMO Financial Group
• Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
• Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
• Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
• Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
• Christopher Low, FTN Financial
• Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs & Co.
• Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
• Thomas Simons, Jefferies & Co., Inc.
• Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics, Inc.
• Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley
• Kevin Cummins, NatWest
• Lewis Alexander, Nomura
• Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
• Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial Group
• Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
• Stephen Gallagher, Société Générale
• Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Securities

Credits

• Katie Kolchin, CFA, Managing Director & Head of Research
• Justyna Romulus

Previous Polls

• PDF

  SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 3Q23

  Download SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 3Q23
• PDF

  SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q23

  Download SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q23

US Economic Survey, End-Year 2023

• SIFMA Research

  US Economic Survey, End-Year 2023

• Press Release

  SIFMA Economic Survey Year-End Findings Focus on the Consumer, Inflation, and Monetary Policy