The median survey response forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $62 billion in the fourth quarter of this year,3 higher than both the third quarter and the fourth quarter a year ago. The year-over-year projected increase is consistent with the a higher budget deficit forecast for this fiscal year, following an extended period of lower deficits as a result of tax revenue growth. The gross Treasury issuance forecast, which is projected to be lower than last quarter, is affected by expected refundings of maturing and callable debt as well as Treasury’s new cash needs.

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA’s Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Credits

SIFMA Capital Markets

• Staff Advisor: Rob Toomey

SIFMA Research

• Senior Managing Director, Research and Public Policy: Michael Decker
• Vice President, Director: Steven Davidson
• Research Analyst: Tiffany Coln