Market Metrics and Trends

A Look at Monthly Volatility and Equity and Options Volumes

Monthly Metrics

  • Volatility (VIX): Monthly average 13.39; +5.3% M/M, -33.7% Y/Y
  • S&P 500 (Price): Monthly average 4,804.49; +2.5% M/M, +21.3% Y/Y
  • Performance (month/year): best = communications +4.8%; worst = real estate -4.8%
  • Equity ADV: Monthly average 11.6 billion shares; -6.7% M/M, +2.0% Y/Y
  • Options ADV: Monthly average 45.8 million contracts; +2.4% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y

Monthly Highlight

  • Some traders believe that the S&P 500 performance in January can predict its performance for the year – as January goes, so does the year. Looking back in history, how often did the January barometer hold true?
  • Since 1990, January market performance was positive 60.0% of the time, full year was positive 70.6% of the time
  • Since 1990, when January posted positive market performance, the full year was positive 47.1% of the time – 16 years positive January/positive full year, 6 years negative January/negative full year, 12 years the correlation broke
  • Over the last 10 years, a positive January was followed by a positive full year 40.0% of the time – 4 years positive January/positive full year, 2 years negative January/negative full year, 4 years the correlation broke
  • January 2024 was positive – how will we end the year?

 

Featured Charts

 

Author

Katie Kolchin, CFA
Managing Director, Head of Research
SIFMA Insights