The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecast total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $351.0 billion in the second quarter of 2010, compared with the net $483.2 billion issued (and $417.0 billion forecast in SIFMA’s 1Q’10 issuance survey) in the first quarter of 2010 and $343.2 billion issued in the second quarter of 2009 (actuals include cash management balances). The drop to $351.0 billion projected for 2Q’10 may partly reflect an expanding economy and expectations for sustainable growth (and associated increased revenues), and attempts to curb spending and national debt levels going forward. However, issuance projections remain largely in-line with year-ago levels, indicating continued financing needs. Uncertainty and challenges in the marketplace linger, despite a recovering economy that appears on track to deliver sustainable growth, and investors will likely continue to find Treasuries attractive and as safer, long-term investment alternatives.

The survey forecasts benchmark Treasury yields will increase going through the second quarter of 2010, relative to levels prevalent at the time the survey was taken. This trend reflects a growing confidence in the recovery’s progress and a perceived increase in demand for riskier assets.

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA’s Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Credits

SIFMA Capital Markets

• Staff Advisor: Rob Toomey
• Analyst: Lily Hao

SIFMA Research

• Director of Statistics: Charles Bartlett