US Economic Survey
Published on:
November 24, 2025
This latest survey was conducted between November 5 and November 13, 2025.
Key Takeaways
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- Economic Growth: The median outlook for real GDP in SIFMA’s H2 2025 economic forecast stands at 1.8% for Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024 and 2.2% for Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025—both above H1 2025 forecasts. Survey participants saw upside risks to growth from lower tariff impacts, stronger productivity gains and increased consumer spending and cited an equity market pullback, rising inflation and a weaker labor market as downside
risks. - Inflation: 90% of respondents saw inflation expectations remaining anchored, even as estimates for core PCE, at 2.9% (Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024) and 2.5% (Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025) remain above the Fed’s 2% target. The forecast for annual growth in core CPI, at 3.1% (Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024) is modestly lower than the forecast made earlier in the year, with core CPI expected to decline further to 2.8% by Q4 2026.
- Monetary Policy: Following two cuts to the Fed’s policy rate year-to-date in 2025, respondents see one additional cut by year-end 2025, with the majority seeing at least two additional cuts by the end of 2026. In comparison to their H1 2025 outlook, forecasters see slightly more easing on a cumulative basis, with a median Fed Funds estimate of 3.25% in Q4 2026.
- Economic Growth: The median outlook for real GDP in SIFMA’s H2 2025 economic forecast stands at 1.8% for Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024 and 2.2% for Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025—both above H1 2025 forecasts. Survey participants saw upside risks to growth from lower tariff impacts, stronger productivity gains and increased consumer spending and cited an equity market pullback, rising inflation and a weaker labor market as downside
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About the US Economic Survey
SIFMA Research conducts a semiannual U.S. Economic Survey with the SIFMA Economist Roundtable, a group of chief US economists from 20+ global and regional financial institutions, after the mid- and end-year Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. In our reports, we review the Roundtable’s forecasts for GDP and factors impacting economic growth, unemployment and other labor market components, inflation, interest rates, and more. We also analyze how these expectations for macroeconomic factors could impact future monetary policy moves.
SIFMA Research also conducts Flash Polls of the Roundtable throughout the year.
SIFMA Economist Roundtable
- Co-Chair – Scott Anderson, BMO Capital Markets
- Co-Chair – Douglas Porter, BMO Capital Markets
- Aditya Bhave, Bank of America
- Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capital
- Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass
- Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
- Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
- Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
- Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
- Christopher Low, FHN Financial
- Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
- Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
- Thomas Simons, Jeffries
- Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
- Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley
- Kevin Cummins, NatWest
- Aichi Amemiya, Nomura
- Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
- Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial
- Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James
- Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale
- Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Stifel Financial
- Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Wells Fargo Securities