The SIFMA Economist Roundtable regular surveys chief U.S. economists on their estimates for GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and more, as well as expectations for monetary policy moves following select Federal Open Market Committee meetings. This Flash Poll provides an updated pulse on select questions following our last more detailed semiannual survey, including:

• Real GDP growth rate:
  • 2025: +1.5% Y/Y; +0.6 pps vs. last survey
  • 2026: +2.2% Y/Y; +0.3 pps vs. last survey
• U.S. unemployment rate (2025): 4.5% estimate; +0.1 pps vs. last survey
• Inflation (2025):
  • CPI/Core CPI: +3.2%/+3.3% Y/Y; no change/-0.1 pps vs. last survey
  • PCE/Core PCE: +3.0%/+3.1% Y/Y; -0.2 pps/no change vs. last survey
• Federal Funds (Fed Funds) rate:
  • Number of cuts in 2025: 82% responded 3 total
  • Expected Fed funds rate at end-2025: 82% responded 3.50%-3.75% (currently 4.00%-4.25%)

 

This survey was conducted between September 18-29, 2025.

About the SIFMA Economist Roundtable

The SIFMA Economist Roundtable brings together chief U.S. economists from around 20 global and regional financial institutions. SIFMA Research undergoes a semiannual U.S. Economic Survey with this group, analyzing the median economic forecasts of Roundtable members, published after Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in June and November. In those reports, we analyze the Roundtable’s estimates for: GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc. We also review expectations for policy moves at the following FOMC meetings and discuss key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.

SIFMA Economist Roundtable Co-Chairs

• Scott Anderson, BMO Financial Group
• Douglas Porter, BMO Financial Group

SIFMA Economist Roundtable

• Aditya Bhave, Bank of America
• Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capita
• Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass
• Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
• Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
• Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
• Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
• Christopher Low, FHN Financial
• Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs & Co.
• Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
• Thomas Simons, Jefferies & Co., Inc.
• Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics, Inc.
• Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley
• Kevin Cummins, NatWest
• Aichi Amemiya, Nomura
• Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
• Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial Group
• Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
• Stephen Gallagher, Société Générale
• Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Stifel Financial
• Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Wells Fargo Securities

Credits

• Justyna Romulus, Vice President, Senior Research Associate
• Matthew Paluzzi, Research Associate

Previous Polls

• PDF

  SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q25

  Download SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q25
• PDF

  SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 3Q24

  Download SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 3Q24
• PDF

  SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q24

  Download SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q24
• PDF

  SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 3Q23

  Download SIFMA Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 3Q23

US Economic Survey, End-Year 2024

• SIFMA Research

  US Economic Survey, End-Year 2024