US Economic Survey

July 21, 2026

By:

Heidi Learner

This latest survey was conducted between June 22 and July 10, 2026.

Key Takeaways

- Economic Growth: The median outlook for real GDP in SIFMA’s H1 2026 economic forecast stands at 2.2% for Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025 (unchanged from H2 2025 forecast) and 2.0% for Q4 2027 vs. Q4 2026. Survey participants saw upside risks to growth from AI-related CapEx, pullback in energy prices and increased consumer spending and cited AI investment correction, geopolitical risk escalation and further increase in energy prices as downside risks.
- Inflation: 89% of respondents saw inflation expectations remaining anchored, even as estimates for core PCE, at 3.2% (Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025) and 2.5% (Q4 2027 vs. Q4 2026) remain well above the Fed’s 2% target. The forecast for annual growth in core CPI, at 2.9% (Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025) is modestly lower than the forecast made at the end of last year, with core CPI expected to decline further to 2.4% by Q4 2027.
- Monetary Policy: Following three cuts to the Fed’s policy rate in 2025, respondents see no cuts in 2026, with the majority seeing one to two cuts in 2027. Almost 2/3 of respondents believe that a Fed hike that ends the equity market rally and causes long-end borrowing rates to spike poses a higher risk than no Fed hike leading to accelerating inflation.

Featured Charts

About the US Economic Survey

The SIFMA Economist Council brings together chief US economists from more than 30 global and regional financial institutions. SIFMA Research conducts a semiannual U.S. Economic Survey with this group after the June and November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. In these survey reports, we review the Economist Council’s forecasts for GDP, unemployment, inflation, and more. We also analyze expectations for future monetary policy moves and how interest rates are expected to evolve.

The survey analyzes consensus expectations—including GDP, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates—alongside views on monetary policy and broader macroeconomic trends shaping the outlook.

SIFMA Economist Council

Co-Chair: Scott Anderson, BMO Capital Markets
Co-Chair: Douglas Porter, BMO Capital Markets
Russell Price, Ameriprise Financial
Aditya Bhave, Bank of America
Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capital
Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass
James Sweeney, Blackrock
Gene Goldman, Cetera
Christian Menegatti, Charles Schwab
Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
Christopher Low, FHN Financial
Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank
Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones
Christopher Low, FHN Financial
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
Thomas Simons, Jeffries
Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial
Alex Pelle, Mizuho Americas
Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley
Kevin Cummins, NatWest
Aichi Amemiya, Nomura
Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial
Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James
Jan J. J. Groen, Societe Generale
Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Stifel Financial
Derek Burleton, TD Bank Group
JP Yarusinski, Truist Financial
Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. Bank
Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Vanguard
Tom Porcelli, Wells Fargo Securities
Richard de Chazal, CFA, William Blair Intl. Ltd.

On Demand

Member Briefing on the US Economic Outlook

Watch a replay of the SIFMA Member Briefing on the results from our latest survey of the SIFMA Economist Council, featuring Co-Chair Scott Anderson, Ph.D., Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director of BMO Capital Markets.

Prior Reports

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