Mid-Year SIFMA Economist Council Survey Forecasts Solid 2.2% GDP Growth and the Fed Holding Rates Steady Through 2026

Washington, D.C., July 21, 2026 – Today, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) published the results of its Economist Council semiannual survey. The SIFMA Economist Council comprises U.S. economists from over 30 global and regional financial institutions. The survey assesses the current economic landscape and the outlook for inflation, labor markets, monetary policy, and more. The median outlook for 4Q/4Q growth in SIFMA’s H1 2026 economic forecast stands at 2.2% for 2026, unchanged from the H2 2025 forecast, and 2.0% for 2027.

“The U.S. economic outlook has remained remarkably stable since our last survey despite rapidly evolving shocks and underlying structural changes,” said Scott Anderson, Ph.D., Managing Director and Chief U.S. Economist at BMO Capital Markets and Co-Chair of the SIFMA Economist Council. “The overall GDP growth outlook for 2026 remains resilient, but uneven, as robust AI-driven business investment overshadows consumers contending with slower job growth, deteriorating real disposable income growth, and diminished personal savings. It’s important to acknowledge that 61% of respondents reported an elevated 15% to 30% chance of a negative quarter of GDP growth over the coming year, highlighting the unusual level of uncertainty that still exists in the economic outlook. Even so, the Economist Council generally sees a robust and resilient U.S. economic and labor market outlook through 2027 that continues to run at or slightly above its potential, as developments regarding the AI investment boom, equity valuations, productivity, and labor market impacts loom large.”

Key Takeaways:

• Economic Growth: The median outlook for real GDP in SIFMA’s H1 2026 economic forecast stands at 2.2% for Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025 (unchanged from H2 2025 forecast) and 2.0% for Q4 2027 vs. Q4 2026. Survey participants saw upside risks to growth from AI-related CapEx, a pullback in energy prices and increased consumer spending and cited an AI investment correction, an escalation of geopolitical risks, and a further increase in energy prices as downside risks.
• Inflation: 89% of respondents saw inflation expectations remaining anchored, even as estimates for core PCE, at 3.2% (Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025) and 2.5% (Q4 2027 vs. Q4 2026) remain well above the Fed’s 2% target. The forecast for annual growth in core CPI, at 2.9% (Q4 2026 vs. Q4 2025) is modestly lower than the forecast made at the end of last year, with core CPI expected to decline further to 2.4% by Q4 2027.
• Monetary Policy: Following three cuts to the Fed’s policy rate in 2025, respondents see no cuts in 2026, with the majority seeing one to two cuts in 2027. Almost 2/3 of respondents believe that a Fed hike that ends the equity market rally and causes long-end borrowing rates to spike poses a greater risk than no Fed hike leading to accelerating inflation.
• This report also includes forecast tables and charts of the full survey results and a reference guide on historical trends for select economic data.

The full report can be found here.

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The SIFMA Economist Council brings together U.S. Economists from over 30 global and regional financial institutions. This semiannual survey compiles the median economic forecast of Council members. We analyze economists’ expectations for: GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates and other key indicators. We also review expectations for policy moves at upcoming FOMC meetings and discuss key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.

SIFMA is the leading trade association for broker-dealers, investment banks and asset managers operating in the U.S. and global capital markets. On behalf of our industry’s nearly 1 million employees, we advocate for legislation, regulation and business policy, affecting retail and institutional investors, equity and fixed income markets and related products and services. We serve as an industry coordinating body to promote fair and orderly markets, informed regulatory compliance, and efficient market operations and resiliency. We also provide a forum for industry policy and professional development. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit http://www.sifma.org.