The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $186.5 billion in the third quarter of 2015, 229.7 percent higher than the $56.6 billion issued in 2Q’15 (actuals include cash management balances). SIFMA’s forecast for the third quarter issuance of net marketable debt is more than double the Treasury’s May debt issuance estimate of $66.0 billion.

Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net issuance of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds in 2Q’15 stood at $26.6 billion, an 81.2 percent decrease from the net issuance of $141.2 billion in the prior quarter. Roughly $30.0 billion in CMBs was issued in 2Q’15 after two consecutive quarter without new CMBSs.

The total 2Q’15 net issuance of Treasury securities, including CMBs, stood at $56.6 billion, 59.9 percent below the $141.2 issued on net in 1Q’15 and in line with the Treasury’s May estimate of $59.0 billion for the second quarter of 2015.

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA’s Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Credits

SIFMA Capital Markets

• Staff Advisor: Rob Toomey

SIFMA Research

• Senior Associate: Justyna Podziemska
• Intern: Dan Pallotta