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US Economic Outlook Survey, End-Year 2018

The Economy:

SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable forecasted that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.9 percent in 2018 and by 2.6 percent in 2019, unchanged from its mid-year predictions.

Monetary Policy:

All but one of the respondents expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise its target rate range by 25 basis points (bps) at the December 18-19, 2018 meeting to 2.25 to 2.50 percent from the current 2.00 to 2.25 percent range. For 2019, respondents continued to be divided in their predictions for rate hikes: the most oft-cited prediction was two rate hikes (45 percent), followed by three or four hikes (32 percent), one rate hike (10 percent) and no hike (5 percent).

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook, tax policy, and USMCA implications, among other issues.

 

Listen to the Podcast

Interested in hearing more? Read the press release and listen to Roundtable Chair Michael Feroli discuss the survey results in this podcast.

 

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.

Credits

SIFMA

  • Staff Advisor: Kyle Brandon
  • VP, Research: Sharon Sung

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable 2018-2019

  • Chair: Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
  • Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
  • Michael Gapen, Barclays Capital Inc.
  • Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass
  • Douglas Porter, BMO Financial Group
  • Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
  • Michael Carey, Credit Agricole
  • James Sweeney, Credit Suisse AG
  • Michael Moran, Daiwa Capital Markets America, Inc.
  • Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
  • Christopher Low, FTN Financial
  • Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs & Co.
  • Ward McCarthy, Jefferies & Co., Inc.
  • John Lonski, Moody’s Analytics, Inc.
  • Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc.
  • Lewis Alexander, Nomura Securities International, Inc.
  • Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
  • Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial Group
  • Scott J. Brown, Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
  • Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets, Inc.
  • Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking
  • Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Financial Corp.
  • Seth Carpenter, UBS Investment Bank
  • Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

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