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US Economic Outlook Survey, Mid-Year 2018

The Economy:

SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable forecasted that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.9 percent and 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively. The current outlook for 2018 is stronger than the Roundtable’s previous survey.

Monetary Policy:

Respondents unanimously expect that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise the Federal Reserve’s target rate range by 25 basis points at the June 12-13, 2018 meeting to 1.75 to 2.00 percent from the current 1.50 to 1.75 percent range.

When asked to predict the total number of rate hikes for 2018 and 2019, variation between respondents arose. Two-thirds of respondents expect a total of three additional rate hikes in 2018 (inclusive of a June rate hike), with the remaining third expecting two hikes. For 2019, respondents were divided on the number of rate hikes, with the most often cited prediction for two rate hikes.

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook, commodities, and NAFTA implications, among other issues.

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.

Credits

SIFMA

  • Staff Advisor: Kyle Brandon
  • VP, Research: Sharon Sung
  • Intern, Research: Andrew Greene

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable 2018-2019

  • Chair: Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
  • Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
  • Michael Gapen, Barclays Capital Inc.
  • Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass
  • Douglas Porter, BMO Financial Group
  • Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
  • Michael Carey, Credit Agricole
  • James Sweeney, Credit Suisse AG
  • Michael Moran, Daiwa Capital Markets America, Inc.
  • Brett Ryan, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
  • Christopher Low, FTN Financial
  • Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs & Co.
  • Ward McCarthy, Jefferies & Co., Inc.
  • John Lonski, Moody’s Analytics, Inc.
  • Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc.
  • Lewis Alexander, Nomura Securities International, Inc.
  • Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
  • Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial Group
  • Scott J. Brown, Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
  • Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets, Inc.
  • Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking
  • Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Financial Corp.
  • Seth Carpenter, UBS Investment Bank
  • John Silvia, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

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