US Economic Outlook End-Year 2016

The Economy:

SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable forecasted that the U.S. economy will grow 1.6 percent in 2016, strengthening to 2.2 percent in 2017. The current outlook for 2016 and 2017 is slightly weaker than the Roundtable’s mid-year prediction, although the range of 2017 forecast is wider and skewed more to the upside.

Monetary Policy:

All but one respondent expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hike the Federal Reserve’s target rate range at the December 13-14, 2016 meeting. Respondents’ rate hike expectations were not impacted by the results of the presidential election, alt-hough a handful admitted they did wait to see how the markets reacted.

Respondents were generally uniform for the number of rate hikes they expect in 2017, with 75 percent of respondents forecasting two additional rate hikes in 2017, 20 percent only one rate hike and the remainder expecting three.

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook, oil prices, and the presidential election, among other issues.

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.



  • Staff Advisor: Kyle Brandon

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable 2016-2017

  • Chair: Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services Group