Asia Credit Report, Third Quarter 2016

Market Overview and Highlights of Asia (ex-Japan, Australia and New Zealand) debt issuance in Third Quarter 2016

Total issuance in 3Q’16 came in at USD 59.3 billion (bn) as of September 30, up 0.5% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) from 2Q’16 (USD 59.0bn) and up 124.1% year-over-year (yoy), inclusive of high grade (HG), high yield (HY), and unrated deals. Year to date ending September, G3 ex developed markets Asia issuance volume totaled USD 153.4bn and is on track to exceed 2015 full year volumes (USD 169.2bn). EM sovereign issuance continues to dominate G3 bond market headlines – the USD 17.5bn multi-tranche Saudi Arabia debut bond issue in the international markets dethroned the benchmark USD 16.5bn Argentina bond issue, issued in April this year, as the largest EM bond deal ever.

Domestic CNY Issuance

Total domestic CNY issuance stood at USD 174.4bn in the third quarter of 2016, up 9.6% from second quarter volume (USD 159.2bn) and an increase of 11.5% yoy (USD 156.5bn). By tenor, 64.0% of third quarter issuance (USD 111.6bn) would mature in five years or less, followed by the 5 – 7 year bucket (USD 25.1bn, or 14.4% of issuance). By sector, construction led issuance totals (USD 34.1bn), followed by real estate (USD 31.0bn).

Year to date ending September, domestic issuance has already outpaced 2016 volumes, with USD 565.5bn issued domestically in the first nine months of 2016, compared to USD 558.4bn in full year 2015.

Offshore Renminbi (CNH) Issuance

The pace of issuance fell on a qoq basis in the third quarter, reflecting largely seasonal variation. For the third quarter of 2016, an equivalent of USD 3.9bn in CNH bonds were issued, a decline of 48.7% qoq and a decline of 1.1% yoy. In terms of tenor, all of third quarter issuance was accounted for by transactions with tenors of 5-years or less, with a third from short-term paper (USD 1.3bn). HG deals rated A+ totaling USD 1.1bn had the highest share among rated deals (28.4%). In terms of sector, finance transactions totaling USD 3.2bn accounted for the largest volume of deals by sector (83.7%), followed by real estate, totaling USD 404.6mn (representing 10.5% of issuance). Year to date ending September, offshore CNH reached USD 13.2bn, down significantly from full year 2015 volumes of USD 29.4bn of volume as onshore issuance took precedence.

About the Report

Done in partnership with ASIFMA, the Asia Credit Report is a quarterly report on the trends and statistics of the Asian bond market, including both the investment grade and high yield bond market. Additional statistics on the G3 and CNH markets are also included.

For more information on ASIFMA’s efforts in Asian fixed income, please visit ASIFMA.

Credits

ASIFMA

  • Executive Director, Fixed Income: Vijay Chander

SIFMA Research

  • Managing Director, Head of Research: Kyle Brandon
  • AVP: Sharon Sung
  • Research Intern: Yina Qiao