The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $205.5.0 billion in the first quarter of 2014, 22.1 percent lower than the net $263.8 billion issued in the fourth quarter (actuals include cash management balances) and about 13.1 percent less than the $236.5 billion projected for 4Q’13.

Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net redemption of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds in 4Q’13 stood at $182.3 billion, a sharp increase from $27.3 billion issued in the prior quarter. CMBs issuance stood at $81.0 billion in 4Q’13, a 29.6 percent decrease from 3Q’13’s $115 billion, the highest quarterly CMBs issuance since 1Q’11 when $155.0 billion CMBs were issued.

The total 4Q’13 net issuance, including CMBs, stood at $263.8 billion, 85.2 percent increase from the $142.3 billion issued in the previous quarter and in line with the Treasury’s November issuance estimate of $266 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013.

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA’s Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Credits

SIFMA Capital Markets

• Staff Advisor: Rob Toomey

SIFMA Research

• Senior Associate: Justyna Podziemska