US Government Forecast, 2012 Q4

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA's Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Summary

The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $249.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012, 7.5 percent above the net $232.0 billion issued in the third quarter (actuals include cash management balances).

Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net issuance stood at $126.98 billion in 3Q'12, a 21.1 percent decrease from $160.87 billion in the prior quarter. After no CMBs were issued in 2Q'12, CMBs issuance was $105.0 billion in the third quarter, the highest issuance since 1Q'11's $155.0 billion.

The total third quarter net issuance, including CMBs, stood at $232.0 billion, 44.2 percent above the $160.9 billion issued in the previous quarter but 15.9 percent below the Treasury's July borrowing estimate of $276 billion for the third quarter of 2012.