US Government Forecast, 2013 Q1

February 1, 2013

US Government Forecast, 2013 Q1

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA's Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.


The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $358.5 billion in the first quarter of 2013, 21.4 percent above the net $295.4 billion issued in the fourth quarter (actuals include cash management balances).

Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net issuance stood at $190.4 billion in 4Q'12, a 49.9 percent increase from $127.0 billion in the prior quarter. The CMBs issuance stood at $105.0 billion in 4Q'12, unchanged from 3Q'12 and the highest quarterly CMBs issuance since $155.0 billion in 1Q'11.

The total 4Q'12 net issuance, including CMBs, stood at $295.4 billion, 27.3 percent above the $232.0 billion issued in the previous quarter and 2.6 percent above the Treasury's October borrowing estimate of $288 billion for the fourth quarter of 2012.


SIFMA Capital Markets 

  • Staff Advisor: Rob Toomey

SIFMA Research 

  • Research Analyst: Justyna Podziemska


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The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) prepared this material for informational purposes only. SIFMA obtained this information from multiple sources believed to be reliable as of the date of publication; SIFMA, however, makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of such third party information. SIFMA has no obligation to update, modify or amend this information or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any such information becomes outdated, inaccurate, or incomplete.


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