US Government Forecast, 2013 Q1

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA's Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Summary

The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $358.5 billion in the first quarter of 2013, 21.4 percent above the net $295.4 billion issued in the fourth quarter (actuals include cash management balances).

Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net issuance stood at $190.4 billion in 4Q'12, a 49.9 percent increase from $127.0 billion in the prior quarter. The CMBs issuance stood at $105.0 billion in 4Q'12, unchanged from 3Q'12 and the highest quarterly CMBs issuance since $155.0 billion in 1Q'11.

The total 4Q'12 net issuance, including CMBs, stood at $295.4 billion, 27.3 percent above the $232.0 billion issued in the previous quarter and 2.6 percent above the Treasury's October borrowing estimate of $288 billion for the fourth quarter of 2012.