Government Forecast Survey, Q1 2012

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA's Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Summary

The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $365.3 billion in the first quarter of 2012, 17.8 percent above the net $310.0 billion issued in the fourth quarter (actuals include cash management balances).

Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net issuance stood at $300.0 billion in 4Q'11, more than double the $132.3 billion in the prior quarter. CMBs issuance hit the post-crisis low of $10.0 billion in 4Q'11, 90.2 percent drop from the previous quarter's $102.0 billion.

The total fourth quarter net issuance of $310.0 billion was 32.3 percent higher than $234.3 billion issued in the previous quarter and almost exactly in line with Treasury's October borrowing estimate of $305 billion for the fourth quarter of 2011.